Southeast Asia Infrastructure Risk Prototype

This prototype tool presents infrastructure risk analytics for South-East Asia (SEA) using open-data sources on fluvial and coastal flooding hazard maps along with cyclone hazard maps. The risks are analysed and visualised for power plants, electricity transmission lines, road networks, railway networks, ports and airports in SEA. The analysis has been undertaken for the World Bank by Oxford Infrastructure Analytics Ltd.

The purpose of the prototype is to illustrate the type and nature of simulation results and network data currently available in the SEA region, and how – using the existing toolchain – this data might be accessed and interrogated at a sub-national, national or super-national scale.

The modelling and analysis presented here aim to support Disaster Risk Finance and Insurance (DRFI) decision-making by identifying spatial criticalities and risks under current and future hazard scenarios. It comprises a direct damage estimation and an indirect economic loss estimation of GDP disruptions due to asset failures and service disruption.

InfrastructureAssetsExpected Annual Damages (EAD)Expected Annual Economic Losses (EAEL)
RoadRoad linksCost of rehabilitation/reinstating damaged assetsMacroeconomic losses*
RailRailway tracksCost of rehabilitation/reinstating damaged assetsMacroeconomic losses*
ElectricityElectricity linesCost of rehabilitation/reinstating damaged assetsMacroeconomic losses*

* Macroeconomic losses are computed based on GDP for all regions in the Southeast Asia analysis.

The concepts and model results presented here are documented in the study report:

  • Pant, R., Russell, T., Glasgow, G., Verschuur, J., Gavin, H., Fowler, T. & Hall, J.W. (2021). Analytics for Financial Risk Management of Critical Infrastructure in Southeast Asia – Final Report. Oxford Infrastructure Analytics Ltd., Oxford, UK. (Available on request from the World Bank)

The tool being used to visualize the model outputs is developed and documented here:

The Southeast Asia analytics are produced using the code here:

Funding support

This project is led by the Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program (DRFIP) of the World Bank with support from the Japan—World Bank Program for Mainstreaming DRM in Developing Countries, which is financed by the Government of Japan and managed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) through the Tokyo Disaster Risk Management Hub.

Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program, supported by World Bank Group